Career: Launch Trends & Market Analysis

Depends on what's declining. If volume drops but engagement rises, the market is maturing. That's often good for existing players. If both drop, the category may be dying. The quarterly breakdown on each page tells you which pattern you're seeing.

At least three. Two data points is a line, not a trend. We have five years of data for most categories, which is enough to distinguish real shifts from noise.

Current year launches compared to the same period last year. Positive means more products launching. Negative means the category cooled. Neither is inherently good or bad. A mature category with fewer but better launches is often healthier than one flooding the market with clones.

Launch volume drops but engagement per product rises. Fewer builders entering, but the ones that do find a more receptive audience. That's an opportunity signal. We flag it when we see it.

We report what happened. We don't predict. Five years of data shows patterns, but markets surprise people for a living.